Exceedance and Return Period of High Temperature in the African Region

Several studies have indicated that the social, economic and other impacts of global warming can be linked with changes in frequency intensity extreme weather/climate events. Developing countries, particularly African region, are highly affected by events such as high temperature, usually followed/accompanied drought. Therefore, studying probability occurrence return period temperatures, possible change these parameters, is importance for climate-related policy making preparedness works region. This study aims to address issues assessing exceedance extremes annual maximum mean temperatures. The analyses historical data this showed both temperature likely exceeded more often future compared past. For event marker (threshold) defined study, 3 exceedances following 19 years (for instance), at any gridpoint, estimated least 10% maxima 15% those means. Most places however, much higher (up 20%) exceedance. has shown increasing tendency time. Return period, based on most recent data, found less than 6.5 about 48% gridpoints Similarly, 5.5 82% These estimates also a strong getting shorter time goes on. On average, were periods (4–7 years) (6–10 years), 95% confidence. empirical results presented generally agreement IPCC’s projections increased trend. data-driven, robust method used present considered an alternative approach detecting climate via estimating